2016 Possibility Analysis Of Cotton Throwing And Storing Policy

In March, market expectations for dumping and storage were stronger and stronger. It was predicted that the dumping would take place in April.

In terms of price, there are basically three kinds of claims. First, the price is set at the base price of 12000 yuan / ton, and the price is relatively high. Two is the price of 10500 yuan / ton as the base price, and the price is relatively low. Three is the middle price being calculated by the weighted average of the foreign price index and the domestic price index.

The benchmark price is changed, and it changes with the change of index.

The first and the second way is relatively simple, that is, the benchmark price minus the premium of cotton reserves, and get the purchasing price of textile enterprises.

The third mode is a variable price. Under the present circumstances, the probability of downward change is greater.

First, if it starts selling at fixed and relatively high prices around April, its negative impact on the 1605 and 1609 contracts will be relatively small, and it will have a great effect on the 1609 contracts.

If the base price of the reserve price is set at 12000 yuan / ton or other relatively high price, the 1605 contract price of 10700 yuan / ton will be compared.

Have advantages.

But now the spot market

The regiment also has a large quantity of cotton to be sold. In the limited months, there is no possibility of shortage of supply in the market.

So the 1605 contract is likely to remain at a low level competition that can compete with national cotton reserves.

For the 1609 contract, there may be a rise in the future.

Overall, if a higher base price is used to throw the reserve, the probability of narrowing the price difference between the 1605 and 1609 contracts is greater.

Second, if around April, a relatively low price will be allocated to the reserve, which will have a relatively negative impact on the 1605 and 1609 contracts, which will help to store stocks.

Since the price of the national reserve is low, the 1605 contract must close to the national reserve price before there is room for sale, so the 1605 contract still has room to fall.

At the same time, for enterprises, sales in May are obviously more advantageous than sales in September, not only the price is nearly 700 yuan / ton, but also the capital withdrawal is relatively fast.

From this perspective, the price difference between the 1605 and 1609 contracts will converge, and prices will be aligned with the national cotton reserves.

Third, if the national cotton reserves are sold at variable prices in April, the price will go lower and lower until the final balance is reached.

The rate of price decline may start slowly, but the latter will accelerate until the international and domestic supply and demand balance can be achieved through low price.

The difference between the 1605 and 1609 contracts is likely to remain stable or continue to expand slightly.

Fourth, if the reserves are not directly affected by the 1605 contracts after May, the 1609 contracts will be more obvious.

If the price of the reserve price is higher, the 1609 contract will be supported, and the repair of the large discount will be repaired through the sharp drop in the spot and the slight rise in futures. If the price of the reserve price is low, the 1609 contract will follow the drop of the reserve price until the futures warehouse cotton has a certain advantage over throwing cotton reserves. If the selling price is changed, the 1609 contract will have the biggest drop.

The author believes that in this case, the difference between the two contracts will continue to expand unless the reserve price is fixed at a fixed price, and the price is higher.

Focus on arbitrage brought by throwing and storing

I believe that after May, the probability of dumping and storage in the current situation is relatively small, because this year cotton production is obvious, textile enterprises have needs.

In addition, the probability of using the internal and external cotton spot index weighted price is also small, because changing prices increase the difficulty of operation, at the same time, it will make a bad expectation for the market, which is not conducive to the government stabilizing cotton prices.

If the price is fixed at a fixed price, the probability of taking 10500 yuan / ton or other lower price as the base price is smaller, because this is not consistent with the national policy of maintaining market stability.

The probability of dumping and selling at the base price of 12000 yuan / ton is not large, because the actual paction price in the spot market has been basically flat compared to 12000 yuan / ton, and is continuing to decrease.

The author believes that, compared with the low price of 12000 yuan / ton, it will be more appropriate to throw the store at the price of 11500 yuan / ton.

Under such a hypothesis, there is still a certain downward space in the 1605 contract, and the possibility of dressing up to the 1609 contract is relatively large, so we can try to sell 1605 to buy 1609 contract arbitrage.